Talking to IANS exclusively about findings of the biggest update of the state of knowledge on climate science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations organisation, published on Monday with its impact on India, she said the Indian Ocean is warming at a higher rate than the global oceans.
"Fifty per cent of the sea level rise is contributed by thermal expansion. Hence the sea level over the Indian Ocean region is also rising. The global mean sea level is rising at a rate of around 3.7 millimeter per year that is estimated between 2006 and 2018.
"At 1.5 degrees, the sea temperature is expected to increase by one degree. So, in accordance with that, the global sea level and Indian Ocean sea level is also projected to rise at a similar rate."
According to her, the South and Southeast Asian monsoon has weakened in the second half of the 20th century (high confidence).
"The
dominant cause of the observed decrease of South and Southeast Asian
monsoon precipitation since the mid-20th century is anthropogenic
aerosol forcing. Both annual and summer monsoon precipitation will
increase during the 21st century, with enhanced inter-annual variability
(medium confidence)," Panickal told IANS in an interview.
She is one of the authors of the IPCC Working Group I report titled "Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis".
She
said heat extremes have increased while cold extremes have decreased,
and these trends will continue over the coming decades.
According to the report, an increase in annual mean precipitation is projected.
The
increase in rainfall will be more severe over southern parts of India.
On the southwest coast rainfall could increase by around 20 per cent,
relative to 1850-1900.
"If we warm by 4 degrees C, India could see about a 40 per cent increase in precipitation annually," it says.
Citing the report, Panickal said there is a low confidence in long-term
(multi-decadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of all-category
tropical cyclones.
The tropical cyclone intensity will increase, however, the genesis frequency will decrease or main unchanged.
After
a hard two weeks of working across time zones with cooperation by 234
scientists and approved by government representatives from 195
countries, the climate science report covers topics like extreme
weather, human attribution, the carbon budget, feedback cycles, and
charts the future state of the climate.
According to the IPCC report, the global surface temperature in the
first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99 (0.84-1.10)
degree Celsius higher than 1850-1909. Global surface temperature was
1.09 (0.95 to 1.20) degrees higher in 2011�2020 than 1850-1900.
The 1.5 degree goal requires 50 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050.
Climate scientists say the window is short but it can be mobilised by political will and ambition increase.
On being asked the main findings of the new report which the world did not know before, she said, "Yes, scientific advances enable AR6 (present report) to better understand and attribute human influence on the climate system. Extreme weather events can be attributed to human-caused climate change with higher certainty.
"For the
first time, the Sixth Assessment Report provides a more detailed
regional assessment of climate change, including a focus on useful
information that can inform risk assessment, adaptation, and other
decision-making."
With 7,517 km of coastline, India will face
significant threats from rising seas. Across six port cities -- Chennai,
Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Surat and Visakhapatnam -- 28.6 million people
will be exposed to coastal flooding if sea levels rise 50 cm, according
to one study.
